Institute for Supply Management (ISM) prices are signaling lower inflation. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI)-which historically has a solid track record of leading economic tops and bottoms-is down nearly 10% from its peak 16 months ago.Ģ. Read on for a summary of our current views, with links to more-detailed reports.Īlthough broad stock index performance has been relatively strong YTD, performance under the surface has been more reflective of the macro uncertainties that persist, including:ġ.
stock market could still experience bouts of volatility or weakness linked to ongoing uncertainty about Fed policy, weaker corporate earnings, possibly frothy investor sentiment, and the risk that the "rolling" recession-which has affected various geographies and industries at different times-will roll into a formal recession. We still find international stocks attractive, bolstered by more-attractive valuations and faster earnings growth, while recognizing that a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks could further boost U.S. In fact, the S&P 500 ® index was up more than 13% year to date as of June 14 th, while the Nasdaq composite was up more than 30%-unexpectedly strong performance, albeit driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks.įixed income market returns were positive through early June for nearly every asset class, from short-term Treasuries to high-yield corporate bonds, and we generally expect more of the same in the second half. We had believed equity markets could face rough sledding in the first half, leading to a sunnier second half. One thing we didn't expect was the strength of the broader stock market. government debt ceiling standoff was resolved before a potential default. economic growth slowed, the Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of its rate-hike cycle, and the U.S. Most of the things we expected to happen during the first half of the year in fact did: Inflation eased, U.S.
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